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Money
Yuval Noah Harari
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A country's credit rating is far more impt to its prosperity than its natural resources. Credit ratings indicate the probilbilty that a nation will repay its debts, so they take into account political social and cultural factors. A country with a despotic govt, endemic warfare and a corrupt judicial system will have a low credit rating. So it will remain poor since it will not be able to raise the capital needed to make the most of its resources.
A country without natural resources, but which is at peace, has a free govt and a fair judicial system will be able to raise enough cheap capital to support a good educational and health system and foster trade and industry.
Horses can a lot of things far better than a Model T Ford or a million-dollar Ferrari. But cars replaced horses because they were superior in the handful of tasks the system really needed. (And they didn't drop manure everywhere). There are many modern tasks that are similarly likely to vanish.
We think that people would rather deal with other people rather than an unemotional robot algorithm. But the downside is that people get angry and emotional in unpredictable ways, and then you react in counter-productive ways.
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Humans have two basic types of abilities: physical and cognitive. As long as machines competed with humans just in physical abilities, there were lots of cognitive tasks that humans performed better. But algorithms are starting to outperform humans in remembering, analysing and recognising patterns.
99% of human abilities are unused in most modern jobs. For an AI to squeeze humans out of a job market is to outperform in the specific abilities a particular part of a job requires.
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The crucial problem isn't creating new jobs; its creating new jobs that humans perform better than algorithms.
Baseball long dominated by rich teams who could lure the best players with higher wages. Billy Beane's Oakland Athletics upset thesystem by using algoritms to identify undervalued players that human scouts had overlooked. BB's team shocked the doubters by becoming first team to win 20 consecutive games.
But success short lived. All the other teams adopted the scientific approach, and since they could pay more for both players and computer software, low-budget teams such as the OAs ended up having an even smaller chance of success than before.
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We already recognize entities such as corporations and nations as 'legal persons'. Not much of a stretch to see that applied to algorithms. And bc they make better investors than humans, they cd conceivably end up owning most of our planet.
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Can foresee a future with a massive non-working class - people with zero economic, political or even artistic value, who contribute nothing to the prosperity or power or culture of their society.
Traditionally, life has been divided into two main parts - a period of learning followed by a period of working. Very soon this trad model will become obsolete, and the only way for humans to stay in the game will be to keep learning throughout their lives, and to reinvent themselves repeatedly. Most humans will be unable to do this.
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We will probably be able to sustain these people even without any contribution from them. But then problem will be how to keep them occupied and happy. Today, all we can imagine is drugs and computer games.
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Humans already opting to be controlled (in part) by algoritms. Diabetics already carry sensors that check their blood sugarlevel several times daily, alerting them when it crosses a dangerous threshold. Others have taken it further: experimental iPhone app combined with a tiny pump and sensor inserted in your abdomen. Sensor constantly monitored sugar level, reported to the app, which then ordered the pump to dispense insulin or glucagon.
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In the past, wealthy people had an interest in educating and health care for the masses, bc they were useful economically and militarily. But in the future, if the masses are effectively useless, no incentive to share benefits of constantly improving health care. The elite will decide to spend all health budget on improving or lengthening their lives, rather than 'wasting' money on drones.
AI assisted driving. Many drivers use Waze, the GPS-based app which is constantly updated as to traffic jams, accidents,cop cars etc. Waze knows how to divert you away from heavy traffic and bring you to destination faster, even though not the route you might have chosen. Sooner or later you learn to trust Waze ahead of your instincts. Once it has your trust, next step is to turn it into an agent.You just give agent final aim ('take fastest route home'or t'take scenic route' or 'take route that generates least pollution') and leave it to Waze to choose whole route. Then, Waze gets so good that everybody uses it. So, suppose there's a traffic jam on Route 1.If Waze tells everybody about it, everyone will go to Route 2, which then becomes jammed. Or Waze could go Sovreign, and decide best outcome for everyone is to just tell half the drivers to take Route 2, thereby smoothing out traffic on Route 1.
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MicroSoft personal assistant Cortana. Users encouraged to allow Cortana access to all own personal data, so it can remind you of yr wife's birthday, book atable at favourite restaurant on birthday, and prompt you to take yr medicine an hour before dinner.
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But say you make a NY's resolution to eat healthier, then a week later you tell Cortana to order you a pizza. Which 'self' should Cortana obey?
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